The Skills Imperative 2035: Shifting sands: Anticipating changes in the future labour market and supporting the workers at greatest risk
10 September 2024
“Shifting sands: Anticipating changes in the future labour market and supporting the workers at greatest risk” is the fifth working paper to be published by the Skills Imperative 2035 programme, a five-year programme funded by the Nuffield Foundation.
This report builds on the existing Skills Imperative 2035 research to further examine the impact of anticipated changes in employment and skills requirements on workers in the labour market. We identify the groups most at risk of being displaced by technology and consider how they can make transitions into growing occupations, either from an existing job or after becoming unemployed.
The report explores the barriers that might prevent them successfully transitioning into growing occupations in the future and the factors strongly associated with recent, successful transitions out of ‘high-risk’ occupations.
Key Findings
- Around 12 million people in England work in occupations that are projected to decline between now and 2035. More than a million jobs in these occupations could disappear in the coming decade, including secretarial, administrative, sales, and various elementary occupations.
- Workers in these jobs possess the lowest levels of Essential Employment Skills (EES) on average, suggesting their levels of these skills may pose a significant barrier to successful transitions. However, some workers report not currently utilising all the EES they possess.
- Over the past decade, workers in these jobs have been significantly more likely to transition either into unemployment or economic inactivity than other workers.
- When changing jobs, around three quarters of workers in high-risk occupations have moved into other jobs in high-risk occupations over the past decade. However, the number of jobs in these occupations will decrease, limiting opportunities for displaced workers.
- Mismatches between the skills and qualifications of workers in high-risk occupations and the job demands of growing occupations may pose significant barriers to successful transitions. Of workers in high-risk occupations, over 50% are qualified at level 2 (equivalent to GCSEs) or lower and just over a quarter are qualified at Level 4 or above (equivalent to at least the first year of a degree). Conversely, over 50 per cent of workers in growing occupations have qualifications at Level 4 or above.
- Workers in high-risk occupations with higher-level qualifications are substantially more likely to make successful transitions into growing occupations compared to workers with lower-level qualifications.